By Michael Collins, Managing Principal, EquiNova

Rarely have I ever seen the construction supply community as nervous as we are today. Tariff threats, worries about immigrant labor no-shows, signs of faltering economic growth … they all contribute to our jitters. Businesses want certainty. And while we understand that the world is changing all the time, we just wish the path forward was a little less foggy and treacherous.

I feel your pain. At the same time, because I approach the LBM world a little differently, I have a perspective on all this that may give you hope.

A big part of my work involves analyzing opportunities at companies and markets. Often, both buyers and sellers focus on what’s new: Last month’s year-over-year sales growth, for instance, or a recent initiative, or headlines about a factory coming to town. Those are useful data points, but I pay more attention to longer-term factors. How many homes are likely to be built in the market over the next several years? What business investments are companies making in the area? How long have senior leaders been in their jobs at the LBM dealer I’m examining—and, equally important, which will stay years after a purchase?

LBM veterans know the road ahead for any dealer will include lots of small bumps and the occasional sharp curve. (If you need a reminder; just think back to what LBM was like in 2015 and how much it has experienced since.) The best operations handle this by not only having a plan but also, as Mike Tyson said, being able to change your plan when reality punches you in the face.

I’m not saying we should assume a “this, too, shall pass” attitude of passivity toward what we’re going through now. Our customers want us to act, even if we’re not always sure of the right direction to turn. But we can commit to doing the best we can based on what we know, while thinking at the same time about where we should be headed. 

Investors aren’t sweating the small stuff like you have to do. They are very interested, however, in knowing whether you’re thinking about the big stuff, too.