How Does the Current Economy Compare with Past Cycles? Here Is Some Perspective

The Brookings Institution’s Hamilton Project has just published a set of nine interactive charts showing how household finances in the current business cycle compare with past ones. Above you’ll find one of them, tracking changes in real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) personal consumption expenditures for goods over eight different business cycles since 1960. The bright orange line shows the current, COVID-induced cycle, while the dark green line marks what happened during the Great Recession starting in 2007.

The chart shows three noteworthy things about the current cycle. First, spending on goods shot up faster and earlier than any other economic cycle over the past 60 years. Second, spending growth has now stalled and is beginning to put the current cycle closer to the historical norm. Third–and this is the reason for the dotted line–it has taken only 15 quarters to achieve 19% growth in real goods spending this cycle. We needed 36 quarters during the Great Recession to do the same.

Other charts show that real compensation has held up relatively well this business cycle, but real disposable personal income has been relatively weak. And household net worth has grown more than just about any other cycle, thanks largely to equity in real estate.

Welcome To EquiNova Capital

EquiNova Capital Partners LLC is the new company launched by Michael Collins and Walk Kurek following their years as Managing Directors of Building Industry Advisors. EquiNova invests private equity capital in middle-market companies and provides merger and acquisition advisory services. 

We Can Answer Your Most Pressing M&A Questions

  • How do the most active buyers in today’s market value my company?
  • What parts of the business should I change to improve its valuation?
  • When is the right time to sell?

These are questions that are commonly asked by the owners of building products manufacturers and distributors. Our work in selling and raising capital for companies puts us in a unique position to help answer these important questions. Regardless of when you might decide to approach the market, please contact me to have a confidential discussion about your company and ways to maximize its value for the owners. 

Michael Collins
Work 312-854-8036
Cell 312-282-5462