Every month, the New York Federal Reserve asks about 1,300 American heads of households about their financial expectations a year from now. The chart above shows how consumer attitudes have changed since 2014, while the table focuses on three particular months worth noting.

In June 2022, just 22% of household heads thought their financial situation would improve over the next 12 months, while 44.7% believed it would get worse. June 2022 was about the high-water mark of an inflation surge that contributed to Donald Trump’s return to the presidency. American optimism over what a second Trump Administration could do can be seen in the January 2024 survey, when 36.6% of respondents were optimistic and 21% thought conditions would get worse.

Just three months later, much has changed. In April, only 27% of respondents said they thought their finances would get better. That’s down 9.6 points from January. Meanwhile, there was a 15.3-point rise, to 36.3%, in the share of people who believed their finances would get worse. That surge in pessimism, whether driven by reality of by the ever-present negative economic coverage in the media, may have an impact on home buying and remodeling.